إيران : الروايات الداخلية والتحديات الأمنية الماثلة Iran : Internal Narratives and Real Security Challenges

Why have Iranian actors displayed such aggressive behavior over the past decade, and especially since 2005? Why did Iranian perestroika fail? For a certain time now, Iranian behavior on the international scene has been characterized by military threats and deterrence postures, rhetorical intimidations of Israel, hints at military nuclearization, and assistance for “revolutionary” agitation in states with Shiite majorities. Many explanations have been offered for these variations in Iranian foreign policy behavior, such as profit motives, security opportunities brought about by the spread of technology, or “American encirclement” of Iran by troop deployments in Iraq and Afghanistan. While these explanations have some merit, they do not answer some intriguing key questions: why is it that Iranian decision-makers declare themselves to be a great nuclear power and threaten Israel before actually being able to employ this nuclear deterrent? And why is Iran emphasizing nuclearization in spite of the high economic costs (e.g., in the form of sanctions) linked to this option?